"Trial Month" Is Coming: Is the Crypto Market Preparing to Face a Tremor of Adjustment?

After days of brilliant highs, the crypto market once again proves its nature of "extreme volatility." Leading digital currencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and even Solana or Dogecoin have entered a strong correction phase, wiping away much of the excitement that had just begun. In just one day, Ethereum dropped 5.2%, XRP decreased by 3.8%, Solana evaporated by 6%, and Dogecoin also fell by 5.2%. Even the "giant" Bitcoin could not escape the wave of selling, falling to $115,000, down 7.3% from its recent historical peak of $124,000. Macro Cloud Shadow Market According to Barron’s, the current decline is not a random event. The global financial markets are under pressure from a series of newly released economic data, particularly the spike in wholesale price indices, raising concerns that high interest rates will last longer than expected. This is the direct factor squeezing the flow of money into risky assets like cryptocurrencies. Not stopping there, remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent – that the U.S. government has no plans to expand its Bitcoin reserves – were nothing short of a cold shower thrown directly onto the already fragile sentiment of investors. Mr. Antonio Di Giacomo, an analyst at XS, emphasized: "Bitcoin has proven its strength by reaching historical peak levels, but the subsequent pullback shows that this market is inherently linked to severe fluctuations. Currently, investors are being stretched between two extremes: confidence in long-term widespread acceptance and short-term worries about the highly unstable macroeconomic environment." Focus: Jackson Hole and the "Death Signal" from the Fed Next week, the Jackson Hole Conference will become the focal point of attention for the global financial community, as all eyes are on U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Just one speech from him is enough to shape the market's pulse and determine the flow of capital in the short term. If Powell maintains a "hawkish" stance, emphasizing the need to keep interest rates high and delaying plans for cuts, the crypto market may face a new wave of sell-offs as investors flee from risky assets. Conversely, a "dovish" signal – meaning soft and aimed at easing – would act as a strong psychological boost, encouraging venture capital to return to Bitcoin and altcoins, rekindling confidence in the recovery. In other words, Jackson Hole is not just an annual conference, but rather the "life and death balance" for the psychology of millions of global investors – where every word from Powell could spark a new wave of increase, or plunge the market deeper into the cycle of correction. "The Earthquake" is Awaiting On social media, market expert Doctor Profit has issued a noteworthy warning: In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to move sideways within a narrow range of about 8% until the end of August, reflecting investor caution following the recent surge. However, as September arrives, the market may face a strong "earthquake" correction before finding a new state of equilibrium. According to him, this is the time when traders need to prepare a clear mindset and a reasonable defensive strategy. Establishing short positions can become an important tool to take advantage of short-term downward waves. At first glance, this forecast seems pessimistic, but in reality, in the financial world, each correction hides an opportunity. Those who are patient and disciplined will see it as a good time to "accumulate assets" at favorable prices, laying the groundwork for significant profits when the market enters the next growth cycle. Silent Whales Accumulate Assets: Long-term Trust Not Yet Altered On-chain data is revealing an interesting picture: while the majority panic sell before the correction, whales – wallets that hold large amounts of BTC and ETH – are quietly increasing their accumulation. This move sends an important message: long-term confidence in cryptocurrency remains intact, despite the severe short-term fluctuations. Major investors seem to view the current dip not as a risk, but as an opportunity to accumulate at attractive price levels. At the same time, the funding rate in the derivatives market remains stable. This indicates that the market has not fallen into a state of tension, and concerns about a large-scale sell-off are not present. On a technical level, Ethereum has maintained a strong support zone around $4,300, while XRP and Solana are also striving to find balance. This is a sign that, despite the overall market adjusting, the key coins still have a solid foundation for recovery. In other words, the whales are sending a clear signal: the short-term market may be volatile, but the long-term outlook is still a game worth betting on. Three Scenarios for the Market in September Entering September – a period known as the "fire-testing month" of the crypto market – three major scenarios are particularly drawing the attention of analysts: Negative scenario (30%): If the Fed sends a hawkish signal, maintaining high interest rates for a longer period, Bitcoin could fall below $110,000, triggering a wave of massive sell-offs. The market will enter a defensive state, where fear overwhelms expectations. Neutral scenario (40%): If Chairman Powell maintains an ambiguous tone, the market will continue to move sideways within a narrow range, reflecting a sense of waiting and hesitation. This could be the "spring compression" phase, preparing for a breakout when a clear catalyst emerges. Positive scenario (30%): If the Fed signals a dovish stance, supporting liquidity and opening the door for interest rate cuts, Bitcoin could bounce back to the $120,000 mark, while also providing momentum for Ethereum to approach a new historical peak. Optimism will return, rekindling venture capital inflows. The crypto market has never been a bed of roses. Each explosive price increase is accompanied by severe corrections, causing many faint-hearted investors to be swept out of the game. However, looking back at history, we can see that each pullback opens up opportunities for those who are patient and have faith. The important thing right now is not just to focus on the red numbers on the price board, but to maintain a long-term perspective. Financial institutions, whale wallets, and smart money are still betting on the future of blockchain and crypto – that is the real picture worth following. In summary, September may be harsh, but for resilient investors, this will not be the end, but rather the "gold accumulation season" – a preparation step for the next explosive cycle.