Bitcoin volatility hits a low point! Unsettled contracts for altcoin futures soar to a historic high of 47 billion dollars.

The crypto market is undergoing a structural transformation—Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded to the 120,000 USD range, but volatility remains sluggish; meanwhile, the open interest (OI) of altcoin futures has surged to 47 billion USD, setting a historical high, indicating that leverage demand and capital flow are accelerating their shift.

Leverage demand for alts surges, OI hits all-time high

On-chain analytics company Glassnode's latest report indicates that driven by rapid price increases, alts futures OI has reached $47 billion, setting a new record.

This data reflects that investors are increasing leveraged positions in the alts market, creating a more reflexive and fragile market environment.

Ethereum (ETH) leads the altcoin sector, breaking through $4,500 on Tuesday, becoming the main target for capital inflow after BTC outflow.

BTC dominance declines, funds accelerate towards alts

In the past two months, Bitcoin's market capitalization share has dropped from 65% to 59%, indicating that capital is clearly flowing into the altcoin market.

Currently, BTC is priced at around 120,000 USD, rebounding from last week's low of 112,000 USD, just a step away from the historical high of 123,091 USD.

Glassnode pointed out that 95% of holders are still in a profit state, market sentiment is bullish, but changes in leverage and capital flow may bring potential risks.

Bitcoin volatility is sluggish, which may become a contrarian indicator

The options market data shows that the at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) of Bitcoin continues to decline, and traders have not yet incorporated the high volatility environment into pricing.

Historical experience shows that low Volatility often precedes significant market Fluctuations, which means that when triggering factors occur, prices may experience rapid and disorderly repricing.

Glassnode warns that this situation may trigger a "downpour" volatility in the market in a short period of time.

Key Resistance Levels: BTC 127,000 USD, ETH 4,700 USD

BTC: The cost basis for short-term holders shows that $127,000 is the first major resistance level, and a breakthrough could target $144,000.

ETH: The effective realization price at the +1 standard deviation level shows that $4,700 is a key resistance zone in the near term.

Conclusion

The low volatility of Bitcoin contrasts sharply with the new highs in the open interest of altcoins, indicating that the market is at a critical juncture in leverage and capital flow changes. Although the current sentiment is bullish, historical data reminds us that a low volatility environment often precedes violent market movements. Investors should closely monitor the breakout situations of BTC at $127,000 and ETH at $4,700, as this may determine the next market trend.