At 20:30 tonight, the highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payroll data will be released. The market expects an increase of 110,000 jobs, a decrease from the previous value of 147,000; the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.2%, up from 4.1% previously. Every employment data release from now until September will become the market focus, as they will have a significant impact on whether there will be an interest rate cut in September.

Currently, the overall market presents a weak trend, trapped in repeated fluctuations. Although there are occasional individual cryptocurrencies that experience brief rises, it is difficult to change the overall situation. Retail investors generally feel anxious, while some speculators try to take advantage of this sentiment. However, attempts to manipulate market sentiment will ultimately be punished by market laws. The current market situation can be seen as a large-scale market reshuffle, and investors should be wary of the risks brought by short-term fluctuations and should not easily enter the market.

It is worth noting that expectations for interest rate cuts are decreasing, and there are明显分歧 within the Federal Reserve, which can be roughly divided into three factions:

1. Radicals: Concerned that the job market may soon collapse, calling for immediate easing policies;
2. Watchful faction: hoping to wait for the gradual impact of tariff policies to emerge and assess their actual impact on the economy;
3. Conservatives: Insist on waiting for further deterioration of economic data before considering taking action.

Although interest rate cuts seem to have become a consensus, the real focus is on the timing, magnitude, and rationale of the cuts. This game of monetary policy will directly affect market trends, and investors need to closely follow subsequent developments.