Bitcoin in 2025: The Main Scenarios Based on Market Cycles


1. The current market phase (2024-2025)
• The market is in the "Optimistic/Worried" phase, typical of the mid-cycle stage after a halving.
• NUPL ( profit indicator ) remains neutral, not showing an overheated situation like in 2021
2. Potential scenario: Price increase case
• Switch to the "Belief/Denial" area ( similar to the year 2017 and 2021)
• Growth towards a new ATH is driven by:
- The demand from the organization (ETF, corporate treasury bonds )
- The peak effect of the 2024 halving
Downside risk
• "Worry" lingers with the pullback on:
- A level of 70-80 thousand dollars ( if macro conditions worsen )
- The "Hope/Fear" phase
3. Similarities in history
• 2017: Mid-cycle phase similar → next is a +300% increase
• 2021: Abrupt shift to "Euphoria" → collapse
Key factors for 2025:
- The Fed's policy (interest)
-Bitcoin ETF capital flows in
- Political risk (US election)
What is your prediction for 2025: Will it rise to $BTC = 150,000 or will there be a correction?
BTC1.02%
CHO2.96%
LA6.5%
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