Bitcoin Price Prediction: On-chain Structure Changes Dramatically! Retail Investor Recovery Becomes Key to Next BTC Rise

Bitcoin is currently priced below $119,000, with a weekly drop of 3%, and the upward momentum has slowed. On-chain data shows changes in the underlying structure: since December 2024, the number of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) has been continuously decreasing. Analysts point out that this is due to institutions consolidating their holdings through OTC trades and transferring assets to Cold Wallets for long-term custody. The current bull run exhibits characteristics of "institution-led, retail investor absent"—the stagnation in new UTXO growth confirms that retail investors have not yet entered the market. The market has entered a consolidation phase, with institutions continuing Coin Hoarding and mild inflows into exchanges supporting the fundamentals. The return of retail funds may become the catalyst for igniting the next round of market movement.

The On-Chain Revolution Behind the Price Pause: UTXO Count Continues to Shrink

As Bitcoin's recent price has retraced (currently reported at $119,000, down 3% for the week), a structural change has occurred on-chain. CryptoQuant analyst Avocado onchain points out: The total number of Bitcoin UTXOs is experiencing a sustained downward trend. UTXOs, as the core unit of blockchain accounting, typically reflect changes in market participation patterns.

Institution-led on-chain reconstruction: OTC merger and long-term custody

The underlying reasons for the decline of UTXO reveal the transformation of institutional behavior patterns:

1. OTC trading surges: Whales and institutional investors consolidate scattered UTXOs through over-the-counter trading, merging at least several addresses.
2. Cold Wallet Migration Trend: "After the ETF approval, the environment drives assets to move towards safe wallets, with funds withdrawing from exchanges to institutional-level custody solutions"—emphasized by Avocado. This move significantly enhances on-chain efficiency and reduces operational costs.
3. Long-term Holdings Signal: UTXO consolidation behavior shows that institutions aim for long-term asset allocation, rather than short-term trading. The number of active on-chain UTXOs has not increased in tandem with the price rise, deviating from traditional bull run patterns.

Impact Interpretation: Liquidity Tightening but Stability Strengthening

• Short-term effects: The circulating supply of BTC decreases, and potential selling pressure reduces.
• Long-term significance: A large amount of BTC locked in Cold Wallet enhances the market's ability to withstand volatility, laying the foundation for a long bull run.

Retail power absent raises concerns, waiting for FOMO sentiment to ignite

In stark contrast to the activity of institutions is the silence on the retail side:

• Stagnation of New UTXO Growth: The number of newly created UTXOs in the current bull market cycle has not seen significant growth, which is inconsistent with the characteristics of historically retail-driven bull markets.
• Insufficient Retail Investor Participation: Lack of a surge in trading volume and expansion of on-chain activity brought about by widespread entry of retail investors.
• Opportunity for Recovery: Analysts believe that a sudden price surge remains the most effective catalyst to awaken retail investors. If retail funds flow back, it will be reflected in: a surge in UTXO creation, increased exchange activity, and amplified market volatility.

Current Market Positioning: Healthy Accumulation Rather Than Trend Reversal

Despite the short-term price consolidation, the core indicators remain positive:

• Moderate Inflow to the Exchange: No signs of panic selling.
• Long-term holders are steadfast: Continuously accumulating holdings.
• Institutional capital flow remains stable: OTC and custody demand remain high.

This pattern indicates that the market is in a healthy consolidation phase during a bull run, rather than the end of an upward trend. The institutions have already completed their bottoming process, waiting for retail investor funds to enter and drive a new round of market activity.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is currently undergoing a deep structural reshaping led by institutions on-chain — the continuous merger of UTXO and a wave of Cold Wallet migrations, highlighting the determination of large capital for long-term Coin Hoarding. Although this process leads to a tightening of short-term liquidity, it injects rare stability into the market. The current core contradiction lies in the absence of retail power, as the stagnation of new UTXO growth confirms that retail investors have not yet entered on a large scale. Historical experience shows that sudden price breakthroughs are still the key switch to activate retail investors' FOMO emotions. Investors need to closely monitor two signals: 1) a sharp increase in daily inflow to exchanges; 2) an accelerated rise in the creation of new on-chain addresses. Once the retail side awakens, the combined force of institutional bottoming and retail chasing gains may push BTC into a more explosive rising phase.