Meme Coin Supercycle: Rational Perspective on Grand Narratives

Recently, a new opinion leader has emerged in the cryptocurrency industry, presenting some captivating insights on the future development of Meme coins. This analyst entered the crypto industry in 2016, and although his early investment experience was not smooth, he has found a new research direction this year: understanding Meme coins from fundamental principles.

In the past few months, he has gradually perfected a list of "Meme coins that may explode in the future." With certain tokens on the list performing excellently, coupled with his speech on the "Meme coin Supercycle," this analyst has gradually become the new generation's "Meme coin godfather."

He raised some seemingly sharp points to argue that the Meme coin Supercycle is about to arrive:

1. Traditional value-based tokens are oversupplied, overvalued but perform poorly in price.
2. Value-type tokens are mainly led by venture capital, making it difficult for retail investors to benefit.
3. Value-type coins have a valuation ceiling due to their clear business model.
4. Rather than accepting existing rules, it is better to create new rules.
5. Meme coins are more pure than value coins, only needing to focus on the community and the token itself.
6. Meme coin can provide multiple values such as entertainment, sense of identity, and sense of belonging.
7. Venture capitalists do not like Meme coins because they threaten their interests.

In addition, he also provided the criteria for filtering Meme coins: a market capitalization between 5 million and 200 million, issued on Solana or Ethereum, and at least six months of history. These criteria seem relatively broad.

I believe there is nothing wrong with his criticism of traditional value-based tokens; it's just a bit of a cliché. In fact, the market has already punished low-quality projects through market capitalization declines and the collapse of new projects.

What I question is his overly beautified and exaggerated narrative about the Meme coin cycle. Retail investors actually do not have the ability to truly "create their own rules of the game". As for the identity and cultural value that Meme coins can provide, once the project goes to zero, investors will likely find it very difficult to continue feeling these positive emotions.

Ultimately, the success of Meme coins does not stem from any noble "community culture", but rather from the operations of market makers and the collaboration of opinion leaders. Essentially, it is no different from those value tokens that have been criticized. We need to approach this phenomenon with a more rational and objective attitude.