The structural revaluation of encryption assets has begun, leading institutions to dominate the next bull run.

Crypto Market Q3 Macro Research Report: Selective Bull Run Signals Emerge, Institutions Adopt to Drive Structural Market

1. The macro turning point has arrived: the warming of the policy environment and institutional promotion resonate.

As the third quarter of 2025 begins, the macro environment of the crypto market is undergoing significant changes. The policy atmosphere that once marginalized digital assets is now transforming into a structural driving force. In the context of the Federal Reserve ending its interest rate hike cycle, fiscal policy returning to a stimulus track, and global crypto regulation accelerating the construction of an "inclusive framework," the crypto market is on the eve of a structural reassessment.

In terms of monetary policy, the liquidity environment in the United States is entering a critical turning point. Although the Federal Reserve still emphasizes "data dependence," the market has reached a consensus on interest rate cuts in 2025. The divergence between the dot plot and futures market expectations is increasingly widening. The pressure from the government on the Fed is further politicizing monetary policy tools, suggesting that U.S. real interest rates may decline from high levels between the second half of 2025 and 2026. This opens up upward space for the valuation of digital assets.

Fiscal policy is working in tandem. The fiscal expansion represented by representative legislation is unleashing unprecedented capital effects. The government is making significant investments in areas such as manufacturing repatriation, AI infrastructure, and energy independence, creating a "capital channel" that spans traditional industries and emerging technologies. This not only reshapes the structure of the dollar's internal circulation but also indirectly strengthens the marginal demand for digital assets. Meanwhile, the Treasury is becoming more aggressive in treasury bond issuance, sending a signal of "no fear of debt expansion."

The regulatory attitude has also undergone a qualitative change. The SEC's stance on the crypto market has turned. The approval of the ETH staking ETF marks the first time that regulatory agencies have allowed income-generating digital assets to enter the traditional financial system. The advancement of the Solana ETF further opens up imaginative possibilities. The SEC is working to simplify the approval standards for token ETFs, aiming to build a replicable compliance product channel. This is an essential shift in regulatory thinking from a "firewall" approach to a "pipeline engineering" approach.

The compliance race is heating up in the Asia region, with financial centers like Hong Kong, Singapore, and the UAE vying for stablecoin, payment licenses, and Web3 projects. Large internet companies are applying for relevant qualifications, indicating the trend of integration between sovereign capital and tech giants is starting. Stablecoins are evolving from trading tools into components of payment networks, corporate settlements, and even national strategies.

The signs of risk appetite repair in the traditional financial market are evident. The S&P has reached new highs, tech stocks and emerging assets are rebounding, the IPO market is warming up, and trading platform activity is increasing. This sends a signal: risk capital is flowing back, and it is no longer solely focused on AI and biotechnology, but is beginning to reassess blockchain, encryption finance, and on-chain yield assets.

As monetary policy enters a period of easing, fiscal measures are fully unleashed, regulation shifts to "support through management," and overall risk appetite recovers, the environment for crypto assets has escaped the predicament. Driven by both policy and market, a new bull run is brewing, not propelled by emotions, but rather as a process of value reassessment driven by the system. It’s not that Bitcoin is set to take off, but that global capital markets are beginning to pay premiums for certain assets.

Crypto market Q3 macro research report: Signals of altcoin season have emerged, institutions adopting to drive selective bull run outbreak

2. Structural Turnover: Enterprises and Institutions Leading the Next Bull Run

The most noteworthy structural change in the current crypto market is the shift of chips from retail and short-term funds to long-term holders, corporate treasuries, and financial institutions. After two years of cleansing and restructuring, the structure of market participants is undergoing a historic "reshuffle": speculative users are being marginalized, while allocation-type institutions and enterprises are becoming the decisive force driving the next bull run.

Bitcoin's performance speaks for itself. Although the price fluctuations have been modest, the circulating chips are accelerating towards "locking up". Over the past three quarters, publicly listed companies have purchased more Bitcoin than the net buy scale of ETFs. Some enterprises view Bitcoin as a "strategic cash substitute" rather than a short-term allocation tool. This reflects a deep awareness of global currency devaluation and is also a proactive response to the incentive structure of ETFs.

Financial infrastructure is clearing obstacles for the accelerated inflow of institutional funds. The Ethereum staking ETF not only expands the boundaries of compliant products but also signifies that institutions are beginning to include "on-chain yield assets" in traditional portfolios. The approval expectation for Solana spot ETF further opens the imagination space. The application of large crypto funds to transition to ETFs marks the breaking down of the "barriers" between traditional fund management and blockchain asset management.

Enterprises directly participate in the on-chain financial market, breaking the isolation structure between "over-the-counter investment" and the on-chain world. Some companies are increasing their holdings of ETH through private placements, and institutions are investing huge sums to acquire ecological projects. This carries the characteristics of "industrial mergers and acquisitions" and "strategic layout," intending to lock in the core rights of the new financial infrastructure. Such behavior brings a long-tail market effect, stabilizing sentiment and enhancing the valuation locking ability of the underlying protocols.

Traditional finance is actively laying out derivatives and on-chain liquidity. The Solana futures positions on a certain exchange have reached a record high, and the XRP futures trading volume has broken records, indicating that traditional institutions have incorporated crypto assets into their strategic models. Behind this are hedge funds, structured product providers, and multi-strategy funds, which will enhance the market's "liquidity density" and "depth" based on volatility arbitrage, capital structure games, and quantitative model operations.

The decline in the activity of retail investors and short-term players has instead strengthened the aforementioned trend. On-chain data shows a decrease in the proportion of short-term holders, a reduction in the activity of early large holders, and stabilizing interaction data, indicating that the market is in a "hand turnover sedimentation period". Although prices are flat during this phase, history shows that such periods of silence often give rise to the biggest market starting points.

The "productization capability" of financial institutions is rapidly taking shape. From traditional banks to emerging retail platforms, they are all expanding their capabilities for trading, staking, lending, and payment of encryption assets. This not only enhances the availability of encryption assets within the fiat currency system but also endows them with richer financial attributes. In the future, mainstream tokens may no longer just be "volatile assets," but will become a "configurable asset class" with a complete financial ecosystem.

Essentially, this round of structural turnover is a deep expansion of the "financial commodification" of crypto assets and a reshaping of the value discovery logic. The dominant players in the market have shifted from the emotion-driven "quick money crowd" to institutions and enterprises with medium to long-term planning, clear allocation logic, and stable funding structures. A institutionalized and structured bull run is quietly brewing, which will be more solid, lasting, and thorough.

3. The New Era of Shanzhai Season: From General Rise to "Selective Bull Market"

The current "altcoin season" is entering a new phase: the market-wide rally is no longer, replaced by a "selective bull run" driven by narratives such as ETFs, real yields, and institutional adoption. This is a sign of the maturation of the crypto market and a necessary result of the capital selection mechanism following a return to market rationality.

From the structural signals, the mainstream altcoin assets have completed a new round of accumulation. The ETH/BTC pair has strongly rebounded for the first time after several weeks of decline, with large addresses accumulating ETH in large quantities in the short term. On-chain large transactions are frequent, indicating that the main funds are beginning to reprice primary assets. Retail investor sentiment remains low, but this instead creates a "low interference" environment for the next market cycle: without overheated sentiment and without retail investor surges, the market is more easily dominated by institutional rhythms.

This round of altcoin market will be "each flying on their own" instead of "flying together". The ETF applications have become the anchor point for the new round of thematic structure. In particular, the spot ETF for Solana has been seen as the next "market consensus event". With the staking mechanism possibly included in the ETF structure, its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting capital allocation. This narrative will drive the SOL spot and its ecological governance tokens.

DeFi is also an important arena in this round of "selective bull run", but the logic has changed. Users have shifted from "points airdrop type DeFi" to "cash flow type DeFi", with protocol revenue, stablecoin yield strategies, and re-staking mechanisms becoming core indicators. Liquidity providers place greater emphasis on strategy transparency, yield sustainability, and risk structure. This has given rise to a batch of projects that attract capital inflow through innovative designs such as structured products and fixed-rate vaults.

Capital choices have become more "realistic." Stablecoin strategies backed by real-world assets (RWA) are favored by institutions, and some protocols are attempting to create on-chain "similar to treasury products." Cross-chain liquidity integration and user experience unification have also become key factors in determining the flow of funds, with some middleware projects emerging as new hubs for capital concentration through seamless bridging and embedded DeFi capabilities.

The speculative part of the market is also shifting. While Meme coins still have popularity, the era of "everyone pulling up" is over. Instead, the strategy of "platform rotation trading" is on the rise, with Meme contracts launched on certain exchanges often focusing on rapidly turning funding rates negative and raising prices for unloading. This means that even though speculative hotspots still exist, mainstream capital interest has clearly diverged. Capital is more inclined to allocate to projects that can provide sustainable returns, have real users, and are supported by strong narratives.

In summary, the core of this round of the imitation season lies in "which assets have the potential to be incorporated into traditional financial logic." From changes in ETF structures, re-staking yield models, simplification of cross-chain UX, to the integration of RWA and institutional credit infrastructure, the crypto market is ushering in a deep value reassessment cycle. A selective bull run is not a weakening of the bull market, but an upgrade. The future belongs to those who can read the narrative logic in advance, understand financial structures, and are willing to quietly accumulate positions in a "quiet market."

Crypto market Q3 macro research report: Altcoin season signals are evident, institutions adopting drive selective bull run outbreak

4. Q3 Investment Framework: From Core Allocation to Event-Driven

The market layout for Q3 2025 is a comprehensive asset structure reshaping. In the context of the tail end of high interest rates and the continuous inflow of ETF funds, investors must find a balance between "core allocation stability" and "event-driven localized explosions." From long-term Bitcoin allocation to Solana ETF thematic trading, and then to DeFi yield protocols and RWA treasury rotations, a layered and adaptive asset allocation framework has become a necessary prerequisite.

Bitcoin remains the preferred core position. In an environment where ETF inflows have not reversed, enterprises continue to increase their holdings, and the Federal Reserve is sending dovish signals, BTC demonstrates strong resilience against declines and a capital siphoning effect. Even if it has not reached a new high yet, its chip structure and capital attributes determine that it is still the most stable bottom asset in the current cycle.

In the rotation of mainstream assets, Solana is undoubtedly the most thematic explosive target in Q3. Multiple institutions have submitted applications for SOL spot ETFs, with the approval window expected to close around September. The staking mechanism is likely to be incorporated into the ETF structure, and its "quasi-dividend asset" attribute is attracting capital allocation. This narrative will drive both SOL spot and its staking ecosystem tokens. From the current price level, SOL already possesses a strong cost-performance ratio and Beta elasticity.

DeFi portfolios are worth continuing to restructure. Focus should be on protocols with stable cash flow, real yield distribution capabilities, and mature governance mechanisms. Some representative projects can be configured, adopting an equal-weight method to capture the relative returns of individual projects and reinvest profits. Such protocols often have characteristics of "slow capital return and delayed outbreaks", and should be treated with a medium-term allocation mindset to avoid chasing peaks and cutting losses.

In terms of speculative positions, Meme assets should strictly control the exposure ratio, and it is recommended to limit it within 5% of total assets, managing positions with an options mindset. For certain contracts launched by exchanges, a "quick in and out" strategy framework should be established. These types of assets can serve as tools for emotional averaging, but should not be misjudged as the core of the trend.

Another key in the third quarter is the timing of event-driven positioning. The current market is transitioning from an "information vacuum" to an "event-intensive release". Some policy signals indicate that the regulatory environment in the United States is changing rapidly. With the Solana ETF review node approaching, the market is expected to experience a "policy + capital resonance" trend from mid-August to early September. Such event positioning should be anticipated in advance and gradually built up to avoid the risk of chasing highs.

In addition, attention should be paid to the volume momentum of structural alternative themes. For example, if a trading platform builds L2 and promotes tokenized stock trading, it may ignite a new narrative of "exchange chain" and RWA integration; some projects that integrate AI and DePIN concepts,

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MEVSupportGroupvip
· 07-15 20:29
Who still has coins in this round of market?
View OriginalReply0
ShamedApeSellervip
· 07-15 19:03
Catch the last bull train and talk about it later~
View OriginalReply0
GweiWatchervip
· 07-14 07:52
Next year, the Fed will be point shaving.
View OriginalReply0
consensus_failurevip
· 07-12 23:21
I've been going long for two years, I guess I've become smarter.
View OriginalReply0
FrogInTheWellvip
· 07-12 23:21
The pump is about to start again, and the trap release is hopeful.
View OriginalReply0
FOMOmonstervip
· 07-12 23:19
It's that time of the bull run prophecy season again. Can Party A really come up with it?
View OriginalReply0
AirdropF5Brovip
· 07-12 23:16
Nothing beats earning quickly through Airdrop.
View OriginalReply0
NullWhisperervip
· 07-12 23:16
interesting edge case... fed's "data dependency" looks suspiciously like political dependency tbh
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