The SOL chart warns of a 20% fall despite news about the ETF.

Solana (SOL) increased by 5% to $160 on Monday following news that its first ETF would be traded on Wednesday. However, the growth momentum did not last long as this altcoin wiped out all gains within 24 hours.

In the lower time frame, SOL has not maintained its position above the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving average for more than a month. Although it has formed some breakout signals of a bullish structure, including a spike above $148 last week, SOL has not yet converted these into a sustainable uptrend.

The $148 level is currently under pressure, and a drop below $137 will confirm a lower bottom, indicating the potential for continued price decline in the short term.

To regain its upward momentum, SOL needs to successfully retest the support zone of $137 – $145, and then recover above $160.

SOL Price Chart – 4 hours | Source: TradingViewOn the higher timeframe (HTF), the overall trend remains bearish. In May, SOL could not break through the main resistance level at $180 and has since formed a downward trend within a descending channel.

Although such patterns can lead to bullish breakouts, SOL remains very sensitive to Bitcoin's weakness over the past month.

While Bitcoin fluctuates near its ATH, the price of SOL has dropped nearly 50% since January 19, reflecting relatively poor performance.

SOL Price Chart – 1 Day | Source: TradingViewIf the downtrend continues, the asset is likely to test the daily order block between $95 – $120, providing a more attractive entry point in the long term. However, a strong daily close above $160 in the coming weeks could reverse sentiment and drive a bullish reversal, carrying short-term momentum.

URPD signals important levels

SOL is trading around $148 on Tuesday, with the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicator, which tracks the price levels at which the token was purchased, providing important insights into support and resistance zones, showing that the current price is within a supply cluster of 14.3% around $144.5 to $147.7. This is a key range for a reversal if buying pressure remains intact.

Data from Glassnode indicates that maintaining above $144 is very important. Falling below this threshold signals potential weakness, increasing the likelihood of a retest of lower support levels.

The URPD data of SOL | Source: GlassnodeThe range of $97 – $100 holds 3% of the supply, while the level of $124 records 1.58% of the supply being bought, providing a buffer to limit the decline. If the price cannot hold above $144, the market risks a deeper drop to these levels, where thinner supply could amplify volatility.

The resistance level appears around $157, where 5.55% of the supply is concentrated, creating a challenge for the upward momentum. Currently, the $144.5 – $147.7 range is forming a solid base, where SOL investors need to make efforts to defend.

Vincent